For an academic researcher who first trained as a philosopher, then as a psychologist, Robyn Dawes was a practical fellow. He would tell a story from his time working in a psychiatric ward in the ...
Ever see those precipitation percentages in the weather forecast and wonder how meteorologists decided on that number?
Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin earned $70,000 countering Polymarket's most irrational bets. Human psychology consistently drives prediction market odds far beyond what reality warrants. Over 73% ...
When you throw a ball in the air, the equations of classical physics will tell you exactly what path the ball will take as it falls, and when and where it will land. But if you were to squeeze that ...
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One route could fool you - MH370 data seemed to match many flight paths, then probability exposed the problem
At first, the MH370 route game sounds simple. Draw a path, compare it to the satellite data, and see if it fits. But this episode argues that approach was dangerously misleading, because the data ...
The idea that humans have long been fascinated with chance—rolling dice, testing luck, gambling on uncertain outcomes—is a prominent feature in modern culture. However, new research suggests that this ...
At the Morgan Stanley Tech, Media and Telecom conference in downtown San Francisco Wednesday, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said his company’s recent investments in OpenAI and Anthropic are likely to be its ...
Learn the baseball betting basics, with an explanation of baseball odds and tips and strategies to make you a smarter MLB bettor. Baseball betting is massively popular with casual fans and die-hard ...
If a new pathogen causes a large epidemic, then it might “burn out” before causing a second epidemic. The burnout probability can be estimated from large numbers of computationally intensive ...
If someone told you that they were “probably” going to have pasta for dinner, but you later found out that they ate pizza, would you feel surprised – or even lied to? More seriously, what does it mean ...
Humans respond to environments that change at many different speeds. A video game player, for example, reacts to on-screen events unfolding within hundreds of milliseconds or over several seconds. A ...
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